What we know about the millions of missing Biden voters and why they skipped 2024
Biden 2020 voters who skipped 2024 reshaped the electorate to Democrats’ detriment last November. They could reshape it again to Democrats’ benefit if we figure out how to get them back.
In an ongoing effort to unpack the Democratic shortfall in 2024 and how we can reconstitute a winning coalition moving forward, Way to Win has undertaken a deep dive into the many millions of 2020 Biden voters who sat out the 2024 election—or “skippers” as we refer to them. The skippers, along with voters who flipped from voting for Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024, are hands down two of the most viable pools of gettable voters where Democrats can make up ground in the next few election cycles. Winning over some combination of them during the next several years holds the key to beating back MAGA’s fascist power grab—the success or failure of which will determine the trajectory of our republic for decades to come.
While some strategists view these skippers as a measure of failure in turnout and GOTV efforts, we view their absence at the polls in 2024 more as a failure in persuasion. As Democratic messaging expert and Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer told us on our podcast, Charting The Way Forward: Not voting is a choice. What we heard over and over again in our skipper focus groups (conducted in late March in seven battlegrounds) was that these potential voters attempted to pay attention to the 2024 election but the messages and arguments from the campaigns of Joe Biden and, ultimately, Kamala Harris just didn’t land. One young woman in Wisconsin, for instance, even recalled attending a Harris rally but left early after she didn’t hear anything that resonated with her on a personal level. It wasn’t a matter of – if only someone had contacted her to remind her to vote.
In fact, our exploration of voter file data from the Sunbelt swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina) confirmed that Democratic efforts fell flat with a broad swath of skippers who had cast ballots in 2020 and should have been persuadable in 2024. Across several demographic groups that have historically played a critical role in Democratic victories—including young voters and voters of color—we found a drop off in ‘24 turnout among registered Democrats who had indeed voted in 2020. Registered and modeled Democrats who voted in 2020 but sat out 2024 also did so at higher rates than their registered/modeled Republican counterparts.
As we at Way to Win continue to interrogate ways to win back this critical group of Democratic skippers, we are sharing results from the initial stages of our research. Included below are two memos summarizing our key findings from: 1) Skipper voter file data in four Sunbelt states (***includes data from all voters (not just Biden voters) who cast a ballot in 2020 but did not in 2024) ; 2) four focus groups we conducted of battleground state non-2024 voters who had voted for Biden in 2020, including voters under 35 (mixed race/gender), Latinas and Latinos under 65, and Black men under 65.
2024 Vote Skippers by the Numbers
An analysis of 2020 and 2024 voter file data from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina
Three proof points show that likely Democratic voters who voted in 2020 but skipped 2024, across nearly all demographic groups, played a major role in the outcome of the ’24 presidential election in several critical Sunbelt states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. These states, taken together, had the power to swing the election to Democrats.
Those points, which Way to Win derived from analyzing data provided by Catalist, include:
Registered and modeled Democrats who voted in 2020 but sat out 2024 (i.e. "skippers") did so at higher rates than their registered/modeled Republican counterparts
A loss of vote share among registered and modeled Democrats between 2020 and 2024 across demographic groups
A drop off in turnout among registered Democrats who voted in 2020 in demographic groups that have historically been part of a winning Democratic coalition and played an important role in Democratic victories
The data suggest that depressed enthusiasm among Democratic voters—which we saw throughout the cycle long before President Joe Biden dropped out—posed a substantial hurdle to Kamala Harris’ candidacy. In fact, the electoral outcome wasn’t about swing voters and vote choice alone, which is how many in the media have portrayed it. Trump’s improved showing from 2020 to 2024 was also about Democrats simply choosing to stay home—which changed the shape of the overall electorate to being less Democratic. For example, 63% of Latino voters supported Joe Biden in 2020 according to AP VoteCast while Kamala Harris won just 55% of the Latino vote in 2024—an 8-point delta that moved Trump from winning just 35% of Latino voters in 2020 to 43% four years later. But the Catalist data we analyzed shows that swing wasn’t solely due to voters switching sides, so-called “flippers.” The shift toward Trump was also fueled by registered Latino Democrats who voted in 2020 not showing up last November at the same rates as their Republican counterparts—resulting in registered Democratic Latinos accounting for a lower share of the Latino vote.
Harris clearly lost last November due to a combination of flippers and skippers—while some Biden 2020 voters were sufficiently persuaded to vote for Donald Trump, others weren’t sufficiently persuaded to cast a ballot at all. Both cohorts warrant exploration, but to date the flippers have taken center stage at least in part because their presence in the 2024 exit polls and voter files has outshone, and in many ways obscured, the absence of the 2020 voters who had voted for Biden but were missing in 2024.
But if cycle over cycle Democrats cannot find ways to reengage and win back the voters who helped make up the winning 2020 coalition, we will continue to see electoral losses. Bottom line: If sizable swaths of your team don’t show up to vote, your chances of prevailing decline considerably.
Vote Skippers by the Numbers
(Aggregated across four Sunbelt states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina)
Those skippers represent a 14.4% slice of the total number who voted in 2020; Trump won those states by 531,539 votes combined.
They consisted of:
34.6% registered Democrats; 26.9% registered Republicans (7.7% more registered Democrats who voted in 2020 skipped 2024)
44% modeled Democrats; 31.5% modeled Republicans (12.5% more modeled Democrats skipped)
38.5% other/NPAs; 24.6% modeled “middle” voters skipped
People of color stayed home at a higher rate than white voters.
White voters represented the biggest share of skippers (57.6%) overall, but non-white voters skipped at rates higher than white people (12.2%), including a skip rate of 17.3% for Black and 21.9% for Latino individuals.
Young voters stayed home at a higher rate than older generations.
19.2% of 18–44 year olds stayed home, while only about 11% of those over 45 did.
Voters under 44 skipped at higher rates (19.2%) than their older counterparts (11.3%)
Registered and modeled Democrats skipped at a higher rate than Republicans across demographics.
Both modeled likely Democrats and registered Democrats stayed home at a higher rate than Republicans.
This held true across nearly all race and age demographics in every state.
There was one exception: Black Republicans in North Carolina skipped at significantly higher rates than Black Democrats (likely due to the toxicity of GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson). That North Carolina dropoff disrupted the demographic trend for Black voters when aggregated across all states; however, the raw vote total of Black Democrats who sat out this election was still significantly higher than the number of Black Republicans who skipped.
Shifts in Party Vote Share by Demographic
(Broken out by state)
Democrats lost more vote share by party registration than Republicans in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Georgia data is based on modeled party estimates, because the state doesn’t track party registration.
(It’s worth noting that Georgia outcomes differed from other states in that modeled Republicans lost a larger vote share than modeled Democrats while those modeled as independent or other grew in vote share. It’s a noticeable outlier that warrants more investigation.)
Voters who sat out contributed to loss of vote share for Democrats, especially in demographic subgroups. In Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, registered Democrats lost more vote share than registered Republicans across racial demographics, but suffered larger dropoffs among non-white voters and younger voters. Democrats losing more vote share than Republicans, and therefore changing the shape of the electorate, is part of what contributed to the ‘rightward shift’ in exit polls that many have attributed solely to vote choice. (*GA data based on modeled party estimates because the state doesn’t track party registration.)
Conclusion
The skip trend in 2024 among registered Democrats, modeled Democrats, across demographics is worrying. Should the dropoff persist beyond a single presidential cycle, it could portend a reshaping of the electorate—and a potential demographic realignment.
But the picture painted by the data shouldn’t be taken as irreversible either—time will tell. What is clear is that in order to rebuild a winning coalition, it would be a mistake for Democrats to focus solely on “winning back” the swing voters, or flippers, they lost to Trump. That fixation stems from a flawed analysis that vote choice alone determined the outcome of the 2024 election, when in fact, Democratic voters who helped deliver a win in 2020 but sat out this election drove a definitive change in the makeup of the electorate that substantially improved Trump’s showing between the two cycles.
Democrats must make reengaging their own voters—who disproportionately skipped 2024 at higher rates than Republicans—a strategic imperative moving forward, while also aiming to woo back voters who defected to Trump and win over new voters. Focusing on all three groups of voters—skippers, flippers, and newbies—gives Democrats the greatest opportunity to mine votes at a time when deep partisan polarization makes wide swaths of the electorate unreachable. And leaving behind voters who have cast ballots for Democrats in the past would be a strategic misstep that dramatically narrows the pool of potential voters open to Democratic appeals.
Getting to Know the ‘Missing 2024 Voters’
Focus Groups with 2020 Biden Voters who Skipped Voting in 2024
Lake Research Partners, on behalf of Way to Win, conducted four online focus groups March 26 and 27, 2025, among 2024 skippers (who voted for Biden in 2020 but sat out 2024), in seven battleground states (NV, AZ, GA, NV, MI, WI, PA) segmented as follows:
Young people under 35, mixed race, mixed gender
Latinos under 65
Latinas under 65
Black men under 65
Topline Takeaways
The overall takeaway was that, in the main, these voters didn’t skip voting in 2024 because they viewed Kamala Harris as too liberal or too woke, and the vast majority of them, if they had shown up, would not have voted for Trump. But they are deeply disappointed in the Democratic Party and skeptical of the government and the political process. We found the following themes in listening to the qualitative feedback of the focus groups.
WANTED CHANGE:
These voters were not apathetic, they were mostly engaged and wanted change, but were disappointed in Biden, Democrats and America. A large majority of them aren’t Trump curious or particularly cross-pressured by right wing arguments (though some men of color were). They forthrightly oppose Trump and MAGA, but also found Democrats’ argument uninspiring and unpersuasive, and were turned off by the spectacle, clamor and perceived unseriousness of the campaign. Other points:
Many of them to this day believe Biden accomplished nothing while he was in office.
They mostly don’t like Republicans–view them as greedy, extreme, moving backwards, aligned with the 1%. Some also see them as strong/effective in general and on economic issues specifically.
They don’t like Democrats either but mainly for different reasons—they’re weak, have no backbone, and need to stand up for the middle class and working people.
DISAPPOINTED | SKEPTICAL | CYNICAL:
These voters felt defeated, demoralized, cynical, disappointed and disenfranchised, were very skeptical of politics and the way the economy has functioned, and felt very little sense of control. Other points:
Most of them cared, but for one reason or another, they didn’t think their vote would matter: the winner was pre-determined; the momentum was all headed one direction (mostly for Trump); the government or electoral college would determine the outcome.
The most popular Democratic figures among this group of voters were Barack Obama, because he is the only leader they can remember that made them feel excited and unified, and Bernie Sanders, because they think he would have had a positive impact on the country as president and would have kept young people and low-income communities’ best interests at heart.
BIDEN/HARRIS CAMPAIGN CONCERNS:
The missing 2024 voters had much to say about the presidential campaigns of both Biden and Harris, as well as the switch between them. Their opinions included:
Thinking the campaign didn’t cover a lot of issues and the message generally didn’t land.
The last-minute switch to Harris without a primary of any kind was jarring to voters, with some saying they didn’t have time to get comfortable with her, learn her policies, or didn’t think she was qualified. It came up frequently and tied into voters feeling a lack of control. Coded sexism emerged in some of the responses from both men and women.
At the same time, no one expressed a desire for Biden to stay in; they expressed relief he dropped out, they just didn’t like the handing of the baton.
A surprisingly common frame was that the campaign “wasn’t serious,” with many citing the Harris celebrity endorsements and event appearances and framing them negatively.
While no participants specifically mentioned or blamed “wokeness,” several groups expressed the belief that Biden/Harris/Dems were focused on the wrong things.
Black men in particular reflected back the strongest version of this, what we deemed in our post-election analysis “The Big Lie of 2024” – that Dems cared more about: immigrants, trans people and waging war in Ukraine and Gaza than domestic priorities or their daily economic realities.
Trans issues cut both ways, however, as young people critiqued Harris’s lack of support for transgender people.
When asked about the ongoing conflict in Israel/Palestine, and specifically the plight of Palestinian people, some participants in the Under 35 group didn’t like what they saw as Harris staying mostly silent on Gaza, and by a show of hands 5 of 8 young people said the issue affected their decision to not vote.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2020 and 2024:
Thinking back to the election in 2020 between Biden and Trump and what made them want to vote in that election, voters had similar views:
Black men said that in 2020 there was a “hype train” to get Trump out of office, which motivated them to vote; they also felt the 2020 election was a life vs. death election because of the pandemic and increased police brutality.
Young people were solely focused on getting Trump out of office in 2020.
Latinos viewed Biden as more qualified than Trump, while Latinas said they had more confidence in the government in 2020 and believed Biden could make a difference; but they were less certain in 2024 due to job losses, increases in grocery prices, inflation, and the feeling that no one cared they were hurting.
In 2024, some men in the Black and Latino groups were clearly cross-pressured by Republican narratives, such as Democrats don’t care about you and other people are taking your jobs, and a few of the Black and Latino men had considered voting for Trump in 2024.
TRUMP BACKLASH NOW:
Most of the groups had a strong backlash to Trump’s immigration policies since he’s been in office and what they perceived as a takeover of the government by Elon Musk and the oligarchy.
Across groups, participants feel negative about the way things are going in the country today using words such as: anxious, disappointed, uncertain, concerned, bleak, sad, and uneasy.
Elon Musk and DOGE cuts grated on participants—cuts at the Department of Education broke through with several different groups.
DEMS NOT DOOMED IN 2026:
Despite all this and the fact that Black men in particular thought things were about to get much worse, many participants were open to voting and to voting for Democrats to put a check on Trump, particularly if the economy is bad. In fact, most participants indicated they are planning to vote as a way to make a statement/fight back. The Latinas and under 35s were unanimously repelled by Trump, by MAGA, and by how they are governing. Other points:
Many/most of these missing 2024 voters are planning to vote in the next election as a way to make a statement/fight back (all the young voters and Latinas raised their hands when asked if they viewed ‘26 as a protest vote).
They want to see Dems stand up against Trump, for freedom.
One young participant said the one thing that would make them not want to vote for Democrats would be if they partner with Trump.
We tested two contrasting worldview statements that asked participants which of the following reasons were more to blame for why the country is struggling now:
Having an economic system where the richest 1% have taken $50 trillion in wealth from 90% of Americans over the past few decades through tax cuts, privatized health care, squashing unions, and dividing us by our differences.
Out of control government spending, too many immigrants coming here, going too far with wokeness, and DEI and rights for transgender people.
The groups were overwhelmingly in favor of the first answer for why things are hard, which is an important opening for 2026 messaging. In the Under 35 groups the vote was 7–1 for #1, Latinas were 9–0, Latinos 8–0, and Black men were more split 4–3.
Supporting Quotes
WANTING CHANGE/DISAPPOINTED:
“2020 was difficult… I think at that point I was still a bit more confident in our government system and the power of everybody coming together and voting and how that affects a nation. Now I don’t feel that way anymore. … The loss of jobs, the increase of groceries, the increase in everything, in rent. There was more people that were in need from what I was seeing in my community, more people that were hurting, and nothing was being done about it. It was like–I felt like nobody cared… I still was hopeful then, where this time around I'm like, right, it's all BS and I'm, I'm just not with it.”
—Latina
SKEPTICAL/CYNICAL/CONTROL
“I'm gonna be honest, I feel a little indifferent, that's the word that I would use. I think that a lot of the things that we see happen in our country and the things around us is out of our control, and I'm a big proponent of controlling my controllables. … My, my take on it is I try to be the change that I wanna see, and I try to approach that one step at a time with me and the people, my loved ones around me and my family. And I think if we try to grasp everything that's going on in the country and try to worry about everything, we kind of become overwhelmed and not know where to go and not know what to believe, what not to believe, and obviously we're aware of what's right and wrong, but I just think a lot of things are out of our control and it's unfortunate.
I don't think it's supposed to be that way. I think we should have some level of control. That's the point of a democracy, but I just don't think that we do.”
—Black Man
2024 CAMPAIGN CONCERNS
“Well, you know, with Kamala Harris, I was only hearing this thing about the LGBTQ community and about the middle class—she's gonna take care of the middle class, she's gonna take care of the middle class and, and, and and and abortion rights and women's rights and LGBTQ. Those were the three subject matters that she was pushing—LGBTQ and women's rights with their bodies and the middle class.
Now for me, nothing wrong with those three topics, but I feel we have a major homelessness problem in this country. We have a major mental health issue problem in this country. We have a major issue with veterans and not being taken care of. We have a major issue with people who are on the poverty level that don't have employment, are not qualified to be employed. And we have a major problem with teenage sexuality. We have a major problem with drugs. She spoke about none of those issues as though she's been living under a rock all these years.”
—Latino
TRUMP BACKLASH
“...(without) being able to call a lawyer, without being able to get any help—and the person had a legal right to be in the United States. So, you know, people don't really, I don't think they understand the impact that's happening to human beings every day by these orders and, and these changes and I, I think that we need to start seriously looking at this and think about if that was your mother, think about if that was your brother—think about how that would feel personally.
—Latina
For myself, for like the oligarchy is going… like big business is just buying everything, like they’re the ones who are controlling everything. So it’s like, yeah, we have a vote, but all these other people are actually the ones like doing most of the heavy lifting and they’re the ones influencing everything, so they’re the ones, ya know, like controlling it.
—Under 35, White Woman
2026/DEMOCRATS
MODERATOR: What would you wanna see Democrats do, like, what, what? What could they do that would make you want to vote for them in 2026?
RESPONSE: Stand up for freedom. Actually stand up for freedom and make a, make a firm stand on what actually is American. … Or whoever hits Trump in the face first, that that would be another one.
—Under 35, Man of Color
A sampling of open-ended answers to the question, “What do you think are the best ways for Democrats to move forward and convince you to vote for them in 2026 or 2028?”
Under 35, mixed race/mixed gender:
Make a definitive stance on social issues, make plans on how you propose change, and actually try to make those changes.
Grow a strong backbone, and stand up and not just talk (that they take action).
Take a strong stance and be committed to Democratic values regarding working class.
Latinas, 18–65:
Convince me by being authentic - ensure that the policies you're drafting moving forward will have a positive impact - healthcare, education, human rights, and inflation!
Hold everyone accountable. Be intentional. Consider everyone of all walks of life.
Salary increase, healthcare for everyone either free or at a lower cost.
Latinos, 18–65:
CONNECT with the working class! Have a solid economic plan with multiple facets involved. Promote substance over feelings.
Not only talk of change but live it daily. Practice it as someone would their religion. Lead the change head on and strong and that leader will have my vote.
Be very concise about what and how they plan to make the country better. Embrace non-traditional media more and speak to their desired audience plainly and sincerely.
Black men, 18–65:
Stand up for people and stop being so soft and get on the ground day one.
Focus on us, don't forget us. Attack the issues like the Republicans do. Let go of the facade.
Be serious about what they say they are going to do for the people and do it.
Thank you for this - it’s slightly maddening but also confirms and clarifies the narrative. I believe the protest vote will be ample in 2026, but regardless Dems need to do a lot of work to regain people’s trust.
It often feels like a losing battle as Republicans will always sabotage any attempts at creating a functioning government. Yet, at least it’s no longer behind the scenes and folks can see the destruction up close.
Curious if there is any data to analyze how voter suppression played a role in voters skipping? Ie. Voter registration purges.
Was skipping % out of line with historical incumbent party presidential races?